What if Softimage died?

[Falam]

Let's hope Modo grows and puts a pressure on AD (and force it to keep with 3 major apps).

While Modo will undoubtedly grow over the next couple of years, I just can't see it as serious competition to Maya and Max (and Softimage?) and by the time it eventually has grown to its full potential, Softimage will be long gone and forgotten, I'm afraid.

Quite possible !

[angus_davidson]

I think people are underestimating Modo by quite a bit. Now that its part of the Foundry it will be more tightly integrated with their other tools.

The 7.01 release is also a big step up on many fronts including animation. Its priced competitively, cross platform, and is run by people who can publicly be very engaged and open within the community. Its also very visibly being developed all the time.

Softimage has a lot to deliver for the 2015 version. As much as people do love the Software and will continue to use it for as long as its commercially viable (which is what the poll suggests) Wether people will throw more money at it in the terms of subscription is very doubtful unless there is a massive u-turn on development in the areas that users are actually asking for. (here looking directly at you camera sequencer)

[Hirazi Blue]

I think people are underestimating Modo by quite a bit. Now that its part of the Foundry it will be more tightly integrated with their other tools.

Personally I do not think I really underestimate Modo, it is growing into something very interesting. I think, however, anyone who seriously believes Modo will put "pressure on AD" overestimates it by quite a bit.

[Eugen]

Will Modo get a construction history/operator stack? If not, it will always remain B-league, so to speak (without diminishing what it's good at).

[angus_davidson]

I think people are underestimating Modo by quite a bit. Now that its part of the Foundry it will be more tightly integrated with their other tools.

Personally I do not think I really underestimate Modo, it is growing into something very interesting. I think, however, anyone who seriously believes Modo will put "pressure on AD" overestimates it by quite a bit.

I dont think putting pressure on AD has much to do with it be cause there are far far more Maya users then Softimage. (and orders of magnitude more 3dsMax users). Unless there is a massive about face at best Softimage will continue to be bundled as part of the suite but not actively developed, at worst it will become EOL and just be used as a patent protector.

However what Modo and other software like Houdini will do is give people options. Those options will become better over time while Softimage remains reasonably stagnent less and less people will stick with Softimage (wether from a technical or business POV). Most will likely move to Maya and or LT. Which is mostly why Autodesk isnt too fussed.

Unlike SGI that stubbornly refused to actively develop their product in the face of competition and became a shadow of its former self in the 3D industry, Autodesk can quite happily sideline one of their 3 3D Apps without too big a hit to the Bottom Line. Autodesk doesnt need Softimage, and when the expenses of keeping it up to date become more then it is worth it will go the same way as combustion. Thee Devs will all be reassigned to Maya or 3dsMax. That is a simple business reality. Time = Money. The whole VFX industries failure to understand that is one of the reasons they are in such a mess at the moment.

[angus_davidson]

Will Modo get a construction history/operator stack? If not, it will always remain B-league, so to speak (without diminishing what it's good at).

I know its on the wishlist for the 801 release. I do agree its one of the things needed to bring it to another level.

[Bellsey]

Let's hope Modo grows and puts a pressure on AD (and force it to keep with 3 major apps).

While Modo will undoubtedly grow over the next couple of years, I just can't see it as serious competition to Maya and Max (and Softimage?)........

In that case, where's the potential growth for Modo?

[Eugen]

An application can grow feature-wise, or userbase-wise. I think he meant the former.

I'd be happy if Softimage continued to grow feature-wise, too, even with a stagnant userbase.

[myara]

Adobe’s Creative Cloud Surpasses 1M Subscribers, But Q3 2013 Revenue Falls To $995.1M

http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/17/adobes-creative-cloud-surpasses-1m-subscribers-but-q3-2013-revenue-falls-to-995-1m/
I'm not sure that Autodesk best option is folowing Adobe in the "licence cloud" scheme...

Adobe's cloud system is in other words, rent. And a rent system will always have less revenues at first, it's a long-term business system.

I know a lot of people and companies that haven't upgraded their Photoshop sooner than 4 or 5 years because a 5 years old Photoshop is still good enough to paint your textures, and also gives you more compatibility with outsourcing. With the rent system, 5 years later they end paying a lot more and having a new software with new features they don't need and probably won't be using because of stability and compatibility issues.

The point is, proper development is much more expensive than users are paying at the moment. So when AD lowers the price in whatever way, proper development gets more unlikely.

The same is with the subscription. You seem to pay "less", but the truth is a lot of companies don't use the latest version (in fact I don't know any), and you never change versions in the middle of a long project (that could take years). With the subscription model and new prices for upgrades, now they will be forced to pay for something they don't really need, every year, because upgrading only when you need it has become more expensive.

And with SI is even better, you pay almost the same or even more than Maya (depending where do you live), and get less features every year !

Although you always have n factors in business, It doesn't sound that bad (for AD).


Modo seems like a nice alternative with great potential. It is a good modeling / rendering software, but that's it.

Maya is a platform with 15+ years in the market and a lot of major companies inverting resources and building on it, a lot of experts in the market, and a lot of schools teaching it. How do you compete with that?

[Mathaeus]

Let's hope Modo grows and puts a pressure on AD (and force it to keep with 3 major apps).

While Modo will undoubtedly grow over the next couple of years, I just can't see it as serious competition to Maya and Max (and Softimage?)........

In that case, where's the potential growth for Modo?

On The Foundry community, usual comparison seems to be, Cinema 4d, Lightwave, sometimes Max. From what I know, just personally, only growing app in this field seems to be Cinema 4d, but nothing spectacular. Some former Lightwave facility is now on Cinema 4d, that's it.
Existence of Moma, which seems to be huge work, probably tells something, what some Maya people thinking about integrated Maya renderers. But it can tell also, that some Maya people don't want from Modo, anything else but renderer.

By the way, XSI Foundation also had powerful friends, first time I sow XSI Foundation 4, it was in facility which just 'got it' together with AVID DS.

I intentionally said The Foundry community. Before few days, 'Luxology' finally disappeared from their site. No more...

[angus_davidson]

Modo seems like a nice alternative with great potential. It is a good modeling / rendering software, but that's it.

Maya is a platform with 15+ years in the market and a lot of major companies inverting resources and building on it, a lot of experts in the market, and a lot of schools teaching it. How do you compete with that?

Firstly its animation tools are becoming a lot better. You have Rich Hurrey overseeing the development of it so it will continue to improve in leaps and bounds.

You compete with it by becoming better then it. Its exactly how SGI got overrun by cheaper, faster windows machines. SGI got cocky and didnt believe they were a threat.

Modo has a good community with Active involvement from the developers and or owners

They have a decent Educational policy which is only going to get better as they are actually spending the time to find out what is required.(They have already contacted me and some of the other EDU places here in South Africa) It probably wont be too long before theres a system similar to the Autodesk ARC Program as that is really the only thing they can do to compete.

I am also not saying that Modo is looking to replace Maya, but it will give Softimage a very good run for its money unless Autodesk starts doing significant development work on it. Softimages claim to fame currently is its the best out the box tool. Thats a market Modo can compete in.

[Kzin]

Let's hope Modo grows and puts a pressure on AD (and force it to keep with 3 major apps).

While Modo will undoubtedly grow over the next couple of years, I just can't see it as serious competition to Maya and Max (and Softimage?)........

In that case, where's the potential growth for Modo?

it could be the hype that could come when more and more feature films will use it because of ilm or pixar for example.
we all saw how big such impacts can be, like for softimage3d (jurassic park), maya or shake (booth lord of the ring).
and with companies like ilm or pixar using it you will see much more studio oriented features. so there is a possible grow in sales and users.

[Lord Futzi Voldemort]

it could be the hype that could come when more and more feature films will use it because of ilm or pixar for example.
we all saw how big such impacts can be, like for softimage3d (jurassic park), maya or shake (booth lord of the ring).
and with companies like ilm or pixar using it you will see much more studio oriented features. so there is a possible grow in sales and users.

I think in bigger studios modo is mostly used in the modelling departement where maya can't compete. That is at least a foot in the door, but as long as there is no procedural modelling or a convenient interaction scheme (like for example the same selection scheme in all modules), less tedious workflows and the integration of third party renderers, it won't be able to beat SI.
But I also doubt the foundry is aiming for that.

[luceric]

it could be the hype that could come when more and more feature films will use it because of ilm or pixar for example.
we all saw how big such impacts can be, like for softimage3d (jurassic park), maya or shake (booth lord of the ring).
and with companies like ilm or pixar using it you will see much more studio oriented features. so there is a possible grow in sales and users.

I can't imagine that for modo. There is no game changer in modo, in my opinion. Nichimen Mirai got a boost from its modeler being used on LOTR but subdivs were fairly new back then, just like IK was new in jurassic park times. ZBrush, shake, nuke, Mari, katana, had game-changing scalability. Modo's renderer is potentially interesting but not a game changer. It's hard to say with certainty what film studios really do and think. For example the modelling enhancements in Maya are being driven by people at places such as Pixar (who also wrote OpenSubdiv for Maya), so we could surmise that not everyone is super excited to switch to Modo for modelling. When the foundry got acquired, in the interview with john knoll on fxguide talked about how scalability and referencing was a big problem with Modo that he was hoping The Foundry would address (even though they have no experience on the subject). In other words, it's just no better technology than the other 3D apps. i have more faith in Clarisse, for some reason. Modo was created in this in-between time between the 1990s and now, before developers understood how to use multicore and GPUs. The developers also were focused on writing a "better lightwave" as opposed to a platform. It's an "new old" app, technologically. Which is not to say that it won't get softimage freelancer expatriate who feel they have nowhere else to go other than cinema 4d. I'm just saying I don't think it's going to get a Jurassic Park moment any time soon.

[Mathaeus]

Firstly its animation tools are becoming a lot better. You have Rich Hurrey overseeing the development of it so it will continue to improve in leaps and bounds.

With all due respect, I think it will much, much better for Modo, to have someone like Anzovin as an adviser. That is, someone who already have experience in rigs for masses. That Order-Of-Ops thing, great surprise and disappointment in same time. Not bad at all, but forcing Modo people to work with system which assumes some kind of visualizing the one cord system, while final is performed in another cord system...... at least in my small experience with ICE tools, it's a big no no, when it comes to tools for everyone.
After all, Blender with his set of refined direct copies of already known tools, has to show so much more of animation.
I mentioned this just as an example of good number of tools in Modo, somehow intentionally created to be "off", but still not showing anything better than standards. After all, this unhappy shader tree. Hate to say, but Modo as it is for now, really not something I want to recommend to beginners. But Cinema or Blender, both with "boring" but standard tools, why not...

[angus_davidson]

You do have to remember that not everyone is interested in ICE for their workflow. Also people tend to be very set in their ways. The order of operations way of rigging is fairly easy for people just starting out to understand and maintain. I am not saying things are where they need to be just yet. Not by a long shot.

What I am saying is that it is being developed more actively and visibly then Softimage is. As more serious players get involved and ask for the changes they need to consider Modo as a proper competitor chances are they will get put in. The foundry has a good service record of listening to what their users are after.